PubMed · 2026-06-03
Researchers developed a combined framework to measure drought stress and crop water vulnerability in South Korea, then used it to project how climate change will expand high-risk agricultural zones through the end of the century. Both moderate and high-emissions scenarios show worsening summer and autumn water stress, with the gap between them widening only in the long term.
Both moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) scenarios project expansion of high-risk crop water zones in South Korea, with differences between them modest in the near term but diverging later in the century.
Precipitation variability and evaporative demand are both increasing, intensifying seasonal water stress especially in summer and autumn — the critical growing season for staple crops.
Spatial analysis shows a clear regional shift from stable/resilient water conditions to critical/high-risk conditions, revealing emerging agricultural vulnerabilities that a single-index approach would have missed.