Backyard tree watchers reveal how climate shifts flowering timing
Anujan K, Mardian J, Luo C, Rajakumar R, Tasic H
Phenology
If you grow mango, jackfruit, or tamarind, or just track when the neighborhood fruit trees bloom, this study confirms that shifting soil moisture and warmer nights are already nudging their flowering earlier or later depending on your specific microclimate.
Regular people in India photographed and logged when their local jackfruit, mango, and tamarind trees flowered, year after year, creating one of the largest tree-watching datasets ever assembled. Scientists matched those observations to satellite weather data and found that soil moisture, cool nighttime temperatures, and sunlight levels all nudge flowering earlier or later, but the effect isn't the same everywhere. Trees in different parts of the same state responded differently, showing that predicting how climate change will affect fruit trees requires paying attention to local conditions, not just broad averages.
Key Findings
Analysis drew on 165,006 flowering observations from 19,591 individual trees collected over 9 years by citizen scientists in Kerala, India
Soil moisture, minimum temperature, and solar radiation showed significant associations with flowering onset in jackfruit, mango, and tamarind
Effects of these climate variables were heterogeneous, varying by species and by habitat/location across the region, alongside substantial year-to-year and tree-to-tree variability
chevron_right Technical Summary
A massive citizen-science project tracking over 19,000 trees across nine years in India found that jackfruit, mango, and tamarind trees shift their flowering timing based on soil moisture, nighttime temperatures, and sunlight, but each species responds differently depending on where it grows.
Abstract Preview
Original paper
Long-term citizen science data reveals climate influences of tropical tree flowering at the regional scale.
Tropical tree reproductive phenology is sensitive to changing climate, but inter-individual and interannual variability at the regional scale is poorly understood. While large-scale and long-term d...
open_in_new Read full abstractAbstract copyright held by the original publisher.
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The jackfruit, jakfruit or nangka is a species of tree in the fig, mulberry, and breadfruit family (Moraceae).