Linking community structure and climate vulnerability in desert plant assemblages of southern California.
Zumbado-Ulate H, Barrios LE, Baronia DA, Jenerette GD, Sweet LC
Climate Adaptation
Desert wildflower displays you might drive out to see in the Coachella Valley — from spring annuals carpeting the valley floor to perennials dotting the bajadas — are quietly being pushed northward and upslope, and most species are forecast to lose ground within your lifetime.
Scientists gathered over 200,000 location records for more than 1,300 flowering plant species in the Coachella Valley desert region of southern California. They found that plant diversity peaks along mountain slopes where elevation changes rapidly, while the hottest, lowest valleys have the fewest species. Looking ahead using climate models, they found that nine out of ten representative desert plants are expected to lose livable habitat, and when any one species suffers, many of the other plants it lives alongside are likely to decline too.
Key Findings
90% of representative desert plant species are projected to experience substantial declines in climatically suitable habitat under future climate scenarios.
Plant diversity hotspots are concentrated along steep elevational gradients, while lowland and environmentally extreme areas are cold spots for diversity.
Co-occurrence models captured associations with 88% of annual species and 95% of perennial species, meaning climate-driven declines in key species will likely trigger cascading losses among co-occurring plants.
chevron_right Technical Summary
Researchers mapped over 214,000 plant records across California's Coachella Valley and found that 90% of studied desert plant species are projected to lose suitable habitat under future climate change, with many predicted to shift northward as temperatures rise.
Abstract Preview
Desert plant assemblages in southern California provide an opportunity to link patterns of community structure with climate-driven vulnerability in a rapidly changing environment. California sustai...
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