A three-season field trial found that hybrid winter barley is much less likely to produce very poor yields than a traditional pure-line variety, in both drought and soggy years. Looking at the full range of possible yields, not just the average, gives growers a better way to pick varieties and management that protect against bad seasons.
1
The chance of yielding at or below the overall mean (9.62 Mg per ha) was 0.40 for the hybrid versus 0.62 for the pure-line cultivar (P = 0.0002).
2
The hybrid's advantage was greatest in the lower tail of the yield distribution, meaning fewer extreme low yields in both drought and excess-rain seasons.
3
Optimized management combinations cut conditional low-yield risk to 0.09 for the pure-line and 0.24 for the hybrid.
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