PubMed · 2026-06-06
Over 60 years, rising temperatures, dimming sunlight, and shifting rainfall patterns have reshaped how rice grows across Jiangsu Province, China — with warming helping some growth stages while solar dimming and uneven rainfall create new risks for harvests.
Temperatures rose significantly and consistently across Jiangsu Province from 1961–2020, with high-temperature zones expanding northward — benefiting early vegetative growth and late grain-filling stages.
Solar radiation declined severely across the entire region, especially during early vegetative phases, though its negative effect on final rice yield was partially buffered by other factors.
Effective precipitation increased overall but became spatially polarized, with the south seeing rapid rainfall increases during the tillering stage, while potential evapotranspiration reversed from a historically north-high to a south-high pattern.
