Over 60 years, rising temperatures, dimming sunlight, and shifting rainfall patterns have reshaped how rice grows across Jiangsu Province, China — with warming helping some growth stages while solar dimming and uneven rainfall create new risks for harvests.
1
Temperatures rose significantly and consistently across Jiangsu Province from 1961–2020, with high-temperature zones expanding northward — benefiting early vegetative growth and late grain-filling stages.
2
Solar radiation declined severely across the entire region, especially during early vegetative phases, though its negative effect on final rice yield was partially buffered by other factors.
3
Effective precipitation increased overall but became spatially polarized, with the south seeing rapid rainfall increases during the tillering stage, while potential evapotranspiration reversed from a historically north-high to a south-high pattern.
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