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Phenological shifts keep pace with climate change but are slowing down in a semi-arid grassland community.
PubMed · 2026-05-14
Wildflowers in a Montana grassland are blooming earlier than they used to, and they're keeping up with climate change — but the rate of that shift is slowing down, raising concern about what happens as warming continues.
1
Across 25 wildflower species studied from 1995–2024, flowering advanced nonlinearly — shifts were faster early in the record and are slowing down over time.
2
Early-spring flowering species pushed their bloom dates even earlier specifically under drought conditions, a stronger response than seen in late-spring species.
3
Plants are now flowering with fewer accumulated heat units (growing degree days) and sooner after snowmelt than historically, meaning climate-relevant timing has shifted.