PubMed · 2025-06-27
Researchers reconstructed the full-season weather that pressed herbarium specimens actually lived through, then asked which climate factors explain how far along in flowering a plant was when it was collected. Rainfall timing and total amount predicted phenological stage better than temperature across 14 annual wildflower species, but climate explained seed production far less well.
Precipitation onset and total amount were stronger predictors of phenological stage than temperature across all 14 Streptanthus annual species studied
Earlier rainfall was associated with greater phenological advancement, a relationship that showed significant phylogenetic signal, meaning it is evolutionarily conserved across related lineages
Climate variables explained very little of the variation in estimated reproduction, suggesting seed set is governed by factors beyond growing-season weather