PubMed · 2026-06-30
Scientists used climate modeling to predict where Caryopteris (bluebeard shrubs) will be able to grow as global temperatures rise. Suitable habitat is projected to expand northward and upward in elevation, but fragmentation and gaps in protected areas could leave many future hotspots unguarded.
Under the highest emissions scenario (SSP585), highly suitable habitat for Caryopteris increases by 24.41% by 2090, with the habitat centroid shifting northeastward toward temperate and high-altitude zones.
UV-B radiation (28.4%), diurnal temperature range (23.0%), and precipitation seasonality (10.2%) were the top three environmental drivers of where Caryopteris can establish.
Conservation gap analysis found that a large share of projected future high-suitability habitat in East Asia and the Middle East falls outside existing protected areas, indicating significant coverage gaps.
