Comparing nearby climates can't fully predict how flowers respond over decades
Silva-Cala AL, Rauschkolb R, Bucher SF, Kattge J, Zaehle S
Phenology
If you've ever wondered whether your garden's early bloomers this year are a preview of what a warmer future holds, this study shows that comparing your yard to a warmer spot a few hundred miles south only gets you part of the answer.
Researchers wanted to know if you can predict how a flower will respond to future warming just by looking at how the same species blooms in a warmer place right now, a trick called space-for-time substitution. Using 70+ years of European flowering records for 23 wildflowers and shrubs, they found this shortcut correctly predicts the direction of change, earlier blooms with warming, but it underestimates how much variation actually happens over time. Interestingly, the shortcut got more accurate in recent warmer decades, suggesting that as the climate heats up, plants in different places and different years start responding more similarly.
Key Findings
Flowering responses to temperature were mostly negative (earlier flowering with warming), and spatial vs. temporal gradient responses matched 67% of the time overall.
Spatial gradient data failed to capture the full range of variation seen in long-term temporal data, meaning space-for-time substitution underestimates response diversity.
Agreement between spatial and temporal responses rose from 65.8% in 1950-1985 to 73.6% in 1986-2022, suggesting warmer conditions synchronize phenology across space and time.
chevron_right Technical Summary
Scientists tested whether comparing flowering times across different locations can substitute for decades of tracking the same plants over time, as climate warms. The shortcut works directionally but misses much of the real variation, and it's getting more reliable as temperatures rise.
Abstract Preview
Original paper
Phenological responses to temperature are similar across spatial and temporal gradients - lessons learned from European long-term data.
Understanding plant phenology patterns under global warming is important because they influence many processes, from specific dynamics, such as species interactions, to ecosystem functions, for ins...
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