Sixty years of weather data pinpoint wheat's safest planting window
Erhardt IF, De Cól MC, Brumatti LM, Ponte EMD
Climate Adaptation
Farmers trying to grow wheat in Brazil's tropical Cerrado face a maddening tradeoff: sow early and risk a fungal disease that can wipe out the crop, or sow late and risk the plants running dry before harvest, and this study maps out exactly which weeks split the difference.
Wheat blast is a fungal disease that thrives in the warm, humid conditions of Brazil's Cerrado region, and farmers have long been told to plant late to avoid it. But planting late brings its own problem: the crop can run out of water before it matures. Researchers crunched six decades of weather records to map out, region by region, which planting dates dodge both dangers, and found that mid-to-late March is usually the sweet spot, though El Niño and La Niña years shift the risk enough to change the recommendation.
Key Findings
Using 62 years of weather data (1961-2023) and testing six sowing dates 10 days apart starting February 25, mid-to-late March sowing generally minimized combined disease and drought risk.
Water-deficit risk was flagged when accumulated effective precipitation fell below a 150 mm threshold during crop growth, while blast epidemic probability was modeled with a logistic model tied to weather conditions.
El Niño events increased wheat blast outbreak probability while La Niña suppressed it, with the biggest swings hitting intermediate sowing dates, meaning farmers may need to adjust timing based on that year's climate pattern.
chevron_right Technical Summary
Scientists used 62 years of Brazilian weather data to figure out the sweet-spot planting window for rainfed wheat that dodges both a devastating fungal disease and drought stress, finding mid-to-late March sowing generally works best across the Cerrado region.
Abstract Preview
Original paper
Joint Modeling of Wheat Head Blast and Water-Deficit Risks for Climate-Informed Sowing Calendar Decisions for Rainfed Wheat in the Brazilian Cerrado.
Wheat blast, caused by the Pyricularia oryzae Triticum lineage, is a major constraint to wheat expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado. Delayed sowing is often recommended for disease avoidance; however...
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