Warming boosts acorn crops in Maine but not New York, timing explains why
Bogdziewicz M, Foest JJ
Climate Adaptation
The acorns dropping in your neighborhood woods each fall are part of a chain reaction that reaches mice, ticks, and ultimately Lyme disease risk for anyone walking those trails.
Oak trees don't produce huge seed crops every year; they boom and bust in cycles called masting, and mice populations ride those waves up and down. Scientists compared 30-plus years of data from two forests and found that warming temperatures boosted acorn production in Maine but had no such effect in New York. The difference comes down to exactly when during spring and summer temperatures shifted, showing that climate change doesn't play out the same way even in nearby forests.
Key Findings
Acorn production, mouse abundance, and mouse body mass all increased over time in Maine but showed no directional increase in New York despite warming in both locations.
The acorn-to-mouse relationship held strong in both systems, confirming that seed availability remains the primary driver of rodent population swings.
The divergent outcomes suggest that the season during which warming occurs, tied to species-specific reproductive timing, determines whether climate change translates into greater seed production.
chevron_right Technical Summary
A warming climate doesn't uniformly boost tree seed production: it depends on when during the growing season temperatures rise. Two long-term studies found that oak mast years and the mouse populations they fuel increased in Maine but not in New York, suggesting local seasonal warming patterns determine whether forests and the animals depending on them benefit or stay the same.
Abstract Preview
Original paper
Seasonal timing determines how warming affects mast-driven food webs.
Research Highlight: Keesing, F., LaDeau, S., Canham, C., Oggenfuss, K., & Ostfeld, R. Climate warming, acorn masting and the dynamics of rodent populations: Comparing long-term studies. Journal of ...
open_in_new Read full abstractAbstract copyright held by the original publisher.
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An oak is a hardwood tree or shrub in the genus Quercus of the beech family. They have spirally arranged leaves, often with lobed edges, and a nut called an acorn, borne within a cup. The genus is widely distributed in the Northern Hemisphere, with some 500 species, both deciduous and evergreen. ...