Opportunities to strengthen US phosphorus supply resilience through circular pathways.
Wang J, Elser JJ, Muenich RL, Baker JS, Jones JL
Soil Health
Every bag of vegetable fertilizer you buy traces back to a finite rock mined mostly overseas — but the dirt in your raised beds and the pastures around you may already hold more phosphorus than crops need, locked up and waiting to be unlocked by smarter soil management.
Phosphorus is a nutrient that every plant needs to grow, and right now we get most of it by mining ancient rock deposits that are running low. Scientists built a detailed model tracking how phosphorus has moved through US farms, soils, and food systems since the 1860s, and found that American soils have been quietly accumulating massive reserves — way more than farmers are currently using. If we get better at recycling phosphorus from sewage, animal manure, and food waste, and learn to help plants access what's already in the soil, the US could dramatically cut its need to mine new phosphorus at all.
Key Findings
By 2023, US soils had accumulated approximately 99 teragrams (99 million metric tons) of residual phosphorus — equal to roughly 68% of all mineral phosphorus applied since 1866.
Reusing that stockpiled soil phosphorus alone could supply 2.4 to 5.1 times projected US mineral phosphorus demand between 2024 and 2050.
Recycling from sewage sludge, livestock manure, and crop byproducts could offset an additional 0.5–1.0× mineral demand, while reducing food waste could cut requirements by another ~0.3×; however, the Midwest — where most cropland sits — has the lowest ratio of circular phosphorus supply to local demand.
chevron_right Technical Summary
US soils have quietly stockpiled nearly 100 million metric tons of phosphorus since the 1800s — enough to meet agricultural demand several times over if we learn to tap it instead of mining more. Smarter recycling of that legacy phosphorus, plus better use of sewage, manure, and crop waste, could largely free American farming from dependence on imported phosphate rock.
Abstract Preview
With diminishing availability of high-quality phosphate rock and increasing supply uncertainties, improving phosphorus (P) recovery, recycling, and waste reduction has become critical for sustainin...
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