Assessing climate change effects on streamflow and paddy production in the Bharathapuzha Basin Kerala.
Nair GS, Karunanidhi D, Berhe BA
Climate Adaptation
Rice prices at your grocery store are quietly tied to monsoon reliability in South Asia — and this study shows that system is breaking down far faster than previously assumed.
Scientists used computer models to simulate how changing weather patterns will affect rice farming in Kerala, a region of southern India where farmers rely heavily on seasonal rains. They found that more extreme floods and longer dry spells are already stressing crops, and that without major changes in farming practices, rice harvests could collapse to a fraction of what they are today by the end of the century. The researchers say switching to heat-tolerant rice varieties and smarter irrigation could help, but the window for action is narrowing.
Key Findings
Paddy (rice) yields are projected to decline 23–33% by 2035 and 68–74% by 2100 under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario.
Climate models consistently show intensified flood peaks and greater dry-season water stress altering streamflow in the Bharathapuzha River watershed.
Two sub-regions respond differently: Alathur faces greater near-term crop losses, while Palakkad suffers the steeper late-century decline.
chevron_right Technical Summary
A modeling study projects that rice harvests in Kerala, India could fall 23–33% by 2035 and up to 74% by 2100 under high-emission scenarios, as climate change intensifies monsoon variability, raises temperatures, and disrupts river flows that farmers depend on.
Abstract Preview
In humid tropical regions, where paddy production is heavily reliant on monsoon rainfall and regulated streamflow, climate variability remains a major threat to agricultural sustainability. Using p...
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